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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model