Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Arizona Cardinals 23

(7:20) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to ARI 14, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-47-P.Dawson.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model