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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 23

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 7-B.Walsh 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.82 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP