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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 23

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 9-J.Ryan punts 30 yards to ARI 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.91 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model