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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.62 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP