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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to ARI 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 26 for 7 yards (23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.94 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP