Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to ARI 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 30 for 9 yards (35-D.Shead). PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.53 EP
54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model