4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model