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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.16 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model