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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 86

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:38) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to TB 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model