4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 7-P.Murray 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model