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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Carolina Panthers 15

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 7-P.Murray 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model