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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.56 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model