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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 15 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to TB 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-K.Seymour.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model