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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Carolina Panthers 15

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-P.Murray 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model