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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 12 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP