Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 6

(6:51) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 30 for 3 yards (59-D.Bond).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model