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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 30-C.Clement up the middle to LV 19 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.70 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model