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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.23 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model