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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to LV 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-47-N.Gerry.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.91 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model