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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 2 at the 42
Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree.
The Three Options
GO
+0.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
KICK
-1.06 EP
- 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 62% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
