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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 2-G.Tavecchio 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model