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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to PHI 19, Center-59-J.Condo. 38-K.Barner to PHI 27 for 8 yards (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model