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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 87

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to LV 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 30-J.Richard to LV 48 for 12 yards (45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model