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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 2-G.Tavecchio 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP