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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.82 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model