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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to PHI 17, Center-59-J.Condo. 38-K.Barner to PHI 24 for 7 yards (16-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model