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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to LV 40, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model