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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 4-P.Dawson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP