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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 23 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:28) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to NYG 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-H.Sharp.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP