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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 87

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to NYG 49, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.44 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 87, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model