Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 23 – New York Giants 0

(7:30) 2-A.Lee punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model