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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model