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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 70

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to ARI 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP