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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 2-A.Lee punts 31 yards to NYG 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-H.Sharp. PENALTY on NYG-36-R.Murphy, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model