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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 15

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP