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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short right intended for 84-L.Kendricks INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at GB 48. 22-H.Smith to GB 48 for no gain (84-L.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.14 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -0.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model