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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-D.Morgan, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.98 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP