Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

(4:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Clark. PENALTY on GB, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at GB 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP