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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Clark.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model