Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

(15:00) 8-J.Vogel punts 41 yards to MIN 27, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model