4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 8-J.Vogel punts 23 yards to MIN 30, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model