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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 8-J.Vogel punts 43 yards to MIN 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.85 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP