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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to GB 38, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-41-A.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.42 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model