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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.98 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model