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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 10 at the 53
Miami Dolphins 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 29
What Actually Happened
(1:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Parker.
The Three Options
GO
+0.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.04 EP
- 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -0.61 EP
KICK
-0.05 EP
- 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
- 85% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
