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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 29 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.70 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model