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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.52 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 13, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP