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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 31

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model