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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(4:10) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to MIA 19 for no gain (20-R.Jones; 93-N.Suh).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.88 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model